Guardiola and the rebirth of direct kick

When the English Premier League teams play closer to a better height, it's time for the opponent to use a large striker to play directly to counter.

When a coach adopts a new tactic, colleagues are likely to take note. When Pep Guardiola uses a new strategy or hasn't appeared for a long time, his colleagues will study and copy it.

Therefore, what Guardiola did in Man City's victory over Arsenal at the Etihad last season could create a new tactical trend from next season. At that time, the Spaniard used a long, direct kick to defeat Arsenal's close approach.

Coach Pep Guardiola in the match Man City beat Arsenal 4-1 at Etihad Stadium on April 26, 2023. Photo: Reuters

At that time, Arsenal was still at the top of the Premier League with three points more than Man City, thanks to the best close-to-play kick in the league, according to the high-altitude steal index of up to 388 times. This stat is calculated each time a team wins the ball within 40 m of the opponent's goal. Arsenal have also repeatedly stopped from a high-level steal, with 36 shots in 21 games up to that point.

Guardiola is well aware of how dangerous Arsenal's close-kicking style is, so he uses a different tactic. Therefore, Man City plays directly.

They did not play like Bolton under Sam Allardyce, when goalkeeper Jussi Jaaskelainen repeatedly flicked the ball long to striker Kevin Davies. But they also don't play in the way usually seen in a Guardiola team. Man City only kept the ball 37% of that game, passing the ball to the goal 120 times, the lowest statistics of the team after seven years under Guardiola.

There has never been a time when goalkeeper Ederson had to pass so long at Man City, with 20 situations to put the ball into the opponent's half. Even when not under pressure, he swings the ball directly to the attacker, with not bad accuracy.

The passes of goalkeeper Ederson in the match Man City beat Arsenal 4-1 on April 26, 2023. Photo: Opta

The match against Arsenal is not the only time Man City has turned to direct kicks in the 2022-2023 season, when more than half of Ederson's 11 longest passes since joining the team in 2017.

Erling Haaland is an important factor to help Guardiola implement this plan, thanks to his height of 1.94 m and less touching kick. When the Norwegian striker arrived at the Etihad in the summer of 2022, many were concerned whether he would adapt to Guardiola's style of play, but he thought otherwise. "We will have to adapt to Haaland's runs," he said in January 2023.

Haaland's ability to make walls helps Man City comfortably play longer balls. In the sixth minute, midfielder Martin Odegaard pushed up to close John Stones in the penalty area. This defender is not afraid to rise up for Haaland to make a wall, put the ball for Kevin de Bruyne to rush up. The Belgian midfielder burst into the middle, then shot into the net, just nine seconds from when Stones began to swing long.

Haaland made a wall for De Bruyne to jump up at Man City's opening goal. Photo: screenshot

Direct attack is not new in football, and it is not only Man City that does it. Other teams like Brentford, Crystal Palace or even Man Utd also like to use long balls. This option may appear more and more, as the teams get closer and closer, with greater intensity.

Closer play is increasingly effective in the English Premier League. The last seven consecutive seasons, breaking the record for the number of high-level steals, averaging 16 situations per game last season. Teams not only steal the ball more high, they also convert such opportunities better. The high level of stealing the ball leading to a shot in the Premier League has increased continuously for the past 13 years.

Goals scored from a high-flying tackle have also more than doubled in the Premier League over the past 10 years, to 98 last season. All 20 teams in the tournament have scored at least one goal from such balls. Man City, Arsenal, Brentford and Tottenham lead this metric, with nine goals, Leicester and Brighton seven, and Leeds six.

Teams regardless of their level tend to approach the heights with greater intensity, and that may have been the reason Ederson had to pass longer last season.

Before this trend, teams with tall strikers will be an advantage to catch long balls. Wout Weghorst failed to score a goal in the Premier League last season, but still played 17 games because his height of 1.97 m gives him an advantage when picking up high balls.

Coincidentally, for the first time since the 2015-2016 season, the top three goalscorers are all central strikers, with Haaland 36, Harry Kane 30 and Ivan Toney 20. In previous years, wingers like Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min, Sadio Mane or Raheem Sterling were often in the top group.

Before the 2015-2016 season, the top scorers were all central strikers. The top four goalscorers of the 2014-2015 season, or seven of the top eight players of the previous season, were all strikers. In the 2011-2012 season, all 10 top scorers were typical "Number 9" strikers.

Tactics in football develop constantly, but add cyclicity. However, finding strikers like Haaland, Kane or Toney right now is not easy. Gabriel Jesus is not the type of player who likes to play with his back to the opponent's goal, and Darwin Nunez or Marcus Rashford may have a good body but prefer to play wide. It is no coincidence that a new striker who has scored nine goals at a European top five tournament like Rasmus Hojlund has been shouted at by Atalanta for $ 100 million.

A year earlier, Man City only spent $ 63 million to recruit Haaland. And if the competitors can't find a top-class striker, Guardiola's teachers and students can continue to dominate the tournament.

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